Germany-First Mentality: Greens in Crisis and their Electoral Decision
The Greens have faced three disastrous state elections. They barely managed to stay in the Saxony state parliament. A debacle that led party co-chairs Ricarda Lang and Omid Nouripour to resign on Wednesday. But how did it all come to this? Analyses show that nearly 70 percent of voters have a „strong aversion“ to the Greens. They feel patronized by this party. Allegedly, the Greens do not cater to the working class. Young voters in the state elections in Saxony, Thuringia, and Brandenburg mainly opted for the AfD.
In a post-election analysis in Brandenburg, it is evident that the population not only dislikes voting for the Greens but expressly rejects them. The analysis talks about a „strong aversion.“ The Greens are seen as „overdoing“ it on climate protection, with 66 percent stating that the Greens are a party that wants to dictate how people should live. This does not sound like a political debate based on party programs or a cool analysis but rather a sentiment, a feeling against something.
Emotions and Moods Influence Electoral Decisions
Tobias Rothemund, Director at the Center for Research on Right-Wing Extremism, Democracy Education, and Social Integration in Jena, states that electoral decisions fundamentally depend on emotions and moods. Especially individuals who do not engage much with political issues tend to follow their feelings, even in electoral decisions. According to a 2018 study by the Konrad-Adenauer Foundation, more than half of the respondents said they heavily rely on their feelings when making electoral decisions. Our emotions influence how we perceive politics. For example, the economic situation in the country plays a role for voters. Fear, in particular, is a significant factor. If the fear of change is substantial, resistance against a party can arise, says Rothemund.
„The resistance against the change that green politics represents is very strong in various societal sectors,“ he says. This has social, economic, and identity-related reasons. Rothemund believes that these resistances are repeatedly activated and are only partially explainable by the actions of the Greens. Certainly, they may not have handled things skillfully, but he thinks that the resistance against this policy is more substantial and not solely explained by the Greens‘ political proposals.
Greta Thunberg’s Absence from Fridays for Future as a Figurehead
The electoral decision could also be influenced by the fact that issues like the climate crisis have received less attention lately. Greta Thunberg’s absence from Fridays for Future as a figurehead has affected this. She stood as an influencer and icon for the fight against the climate crisis but harmed the Fridays for Future movement with her controversial stance on Gaza. However, Rothemund says he would not necessarily attribute this to Greta Thunberg. „The climate crisis has somewhat receded into the background lately: A ‚Germany-first mentality‘ is crucial in electoral decisions.“ Many individuals may not want to undergo any restrictions at the moment. The Heating Law, which stirred up a lot of controversy last year, is symbolic of this trend.
Parties like the AfD engage in black-and-white politics, declaring who they believe is to blame for certain problems, thereby managing to satisfy their voters. The Greens, with their climate protection policies that naturally require restrictions, face a dilemma. Countering this and not denying the climate crisis is not easy, says Rothemund. „There will be no easy way out of this situation.“ The reminder of the necessity to adapt to climate change is crucial and serves as a reminder to change existing lifestyles. „And this reminder is always painful.“ Developing a positive utopia is essential, but reducing this question to a mere communication problem is too simplistic.
The Accusation: Greens Interfere in People’s Lives
This means that as long as the Greens have issues that interfere with people’s lives, with voters, they will likely continue to face rejection and alienate voters. However, there are also parties that avoid conflicts by denying fundamental issues. For example, claiming that there is no climate change. While this may seem like a smart strategy at first glance, Rothemund says it is not, as no adaptation can occur under these conditions. However, maintaining prosperity is only possible if the economy adapts to changing conditions. „AfD politics only work in the present because the promise is made that no changes will be necessary,“ Rothemund explains. „But in the long run, this endangers prosperity rather than securing it.“
The Greens now aim to reposition themselves following the announcement of the resignations of the two Green party co-chairs, Ricarda Lang and Omid Nouripour. However, what seems more important is clarifying what the party still stands for. This might lead to better outcomes with the voters.