the Emissions of the greenhouse gases contributing to climate change, which can have a very significant negative social and economic consequences. The in the long run, unsustainable in the greenhouse is that it is free of charge, or with the exercise of official authority, to be let out. It is the most direct and effective solution to this problem is, therefore, an international agreement on a floor price on emissions. With such a price, the place, the majority of the earth’s vast fossil fuel reserves cannot be commercially viable to extract, and thus staying in the face of the earth.
I do feel, however, that a ‚plan B‘, in order to reduce global warming is to be prepared. It is not clear that a sufficiently broad international climate agreement in place. But for ambitious climate policies in China, India, and Africa, then our efforts in Sweden and the EU is not going to last long. The uncertainty is also very much about how sensitive the climate is to greenhouse gas emissions. Even though it’s unlikely, is it possible on a scientific basis, one cannot rule out the runaway climate change if critical thresholds are crossed.
. Sweden should therefore take initiatives for the development of research regarding the actions in addition to the emission reductions can help to slow and potentially reverse, climate change. This type of research can be carried out without a global agreement. The global negotiations in the UN framework, it should not be burdened with this issue, and the focus is on plan A, that is, a global agreement on effective measures for the reduction of emissions.
the Research on plan B, already initiated, in order to be able to be done about it, and in the worst case, the need of 10 to 20 years of age.
It should not be for political leaders to point out exactly what is the technique that will be used to plan ‚ b ‚ is A broad research that could lead to more than one plan involves less amount of risk. However, we would like to point out that promising technologies can be found. One of us has investigated the possibility of stopping climate change by reducing the värmeinflödet-to-earth, with the help of large umbrellas in the space.
It is located in a part of the distance to the sun, about four times the distance from the earth to the moon. At this point, is balancing the gravitational forces of the sun, earth and moon to each other. If the umbrellas are placed, where they can follow the earth’s orbit around the sun is very small because of the steering forces, and all the time to provide the desired shading of the earth. Umbrellas should not be visible from earth with the naked eye and not visible in the shade.
the Best way is probably to use the millions of tiny umbrellas, and move it so that the cooling effect is governed by and will be greater in the zones of the earth where it is needed. The transport from earth to L1, and the manövrerandet which can be carried out by umbrellas and sail, with the help of the light from the sun. When light particles (photons), to reflect to the area of the sail creates a very weak force, which is nevertheless sufficient in order to move the parasols. Thus, there is no need for additional fuel in excess of that required to leave earth’s gravity. Such a technique has already been used on other satellites.
About 1 percent of the sun obscured, it would approximately neutralize the effect of a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels (which have so far increased by about 50 per cent). The total size of the umbrellas would have to equal three times Sweden’s total land area.
the rocket launch, is expensive. Umbrellas need to therefore be carried out easily. Because the umbrellas would be floating (to be in free fall) in space, however, they can be made very thin. As a comparison, the use of the satellite, Lightsail-2, which launched in the summer, thin and light solsegel, which weighs about 6.5 grams per square meter. An area the size of three times that of Sweden, built of the same material would weigh one million tons. In addition, the structure of the base of the parasol. A reasonable estimate is that approximately 10 million tonnes per annum would need to be sent into space.
the Idea of putting up a parasol is not a new concept, but has in the past been unduly expensive because of the very high cost of using rockets to carry cargo into space. However, there is a considerable raketutveckling, not in the least driven by Elon Musk and his company SpaceX.
SpaceX is currently developing a new launcher, Super-Heavy, which is going to be able to take 100 metric tons to the space to be completely re-usable. A reasonable estimate is that the uppsändningskostnaden with technology in 10 years could be around us $ 100 per kilo, maybe less. With this, the price will be the cost to ship 10 million tonnes in the space of a trillion dollars. Of course, this is just an educated guess, and, among other things, the development costs will be added.
it Can parasollidén still be considered financially prohibitive? An estimated cost of only one or a few trillion, that means that the answer is a definite ’no‘.
Norway’s oil fund, which has been built-up by oil money, has a value of one trillion dollars. Nato’s annual military expenditure is a trillion dollars. As a percentage of total world gdp, the cost of the US månprogram in the ’60’s and‘ 70’s about the same as the solparasollprojektet but it was paid for by the united states alone.
the World’s gdp is about 85 trillion dollars a year, of which about 20% is used for investment. If a sum of money equivalent to one-hundredth part of these investments will allocated for a period of ten years, it would generate a couple of trillion dollars.
If you are developing a plan B, as it may lead to less efforts to be made to the plan, (A), that is to say, the international agreement that phases out the use of fossil fuels.
this is A more direct calculation can be made by means of a comparison of the price of emission allowances in the EU emissions trading scheme. The idea of this award is that it shall be equal to the damages the emissions cause. Today, the price is about $ 30 per ton of carbon dioxide. Many people feel that the price is way too low, but let us still be able to use it for a överslagberäkning of the total damage caused by emissions. At present, global emissions of around 40 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent per year. The damage that is caused by, then at 1.2 trillion u.s. dollars. The payback period for the investment in beach umbrellas is therefore, with this very conservative estimate to be a few years old. Because they are expected to hold in the next 50 to 100 years, it is without a doubt a very good deal.
if you need beach umbrellas, they don’t solve the problems that are caused by the fact that more carbon dioxide is making the oceans more acidic. The less solar radiation affects the synthesis negatively. It could also be caused by international conflict of of how much shading should be done and where to focus.
in our opinion, however, is the strongest counter-argument to another. If you are developing a plan B, as it may lead to less efforts to be made to the plan, (A), that is to say, the international agreement that phases out the use of fossil fuels. It is not possible to get around the fact that there is such a risk.
To burn any bridges, and put it all on one card, however, is not, in our opinion, is even more fraught with danger. Therefore, the research on plan B already started, in order to be able to be done about it, and in the worst case, the need of 10 to 20 years of age. Technology for the development of the rymdparasoll can be studied at home and in Sweden, should take the initiative in the field of research of the european space agency (ESA).
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