the Swedish transport administration’s new måldirektör, Jonas Eliasson, who in the past conducted research in this area, responding to the criticism about the inaccuracy of the forecasts, and help to explain why Sweden is making a difference in the period of time of motorists and the public when infrastructure projects are being planned.
it is in the sacrifice of driving their own cars in an hour is considered much more than sitting for an hour on the train or in the bus.
on The way, according to some critics, the errors and the impact on the calculation of how profitable it is to invest in various infrastructure projects.
“ the Valuation is not based on the assumption that some of the officials to guess, but rather the assumption that you are trying to study how a variety of travellers are influenced by various aspects of the transportation system, and we have done large-scale studies. Time to embark on a kollektivfordon represents a small resmotstånd. I’m guessing that this is because they perceive it to be more productive, and more convenient for you to make the trip.
the Passengers, the revenue impact is really on their tidsvärdering, but the effect is the bortrensad from the time value of money, which is used in the calculation.
“ When you put it that way, it sounds like an inconsistent system. It will be strange to say that the time is worth more. Everyone’s time is basically worth the same, but all kinds of time saving is actually not worth as much. The public transport system, it is more acceptable to be to reduce the bytestid or, wait a minute, other than to reduce the åktiden for a minute, and it is important to reduce the travel time when there is high level of congestion than to reduce their travel time while travelling in comfort.
Photo: Magnus Hallgren
the Question you should be asking is not how much time is worth, but how much is it worth to reduce your travel time. Just the fact that time is of the quite productive means that it is of less importance, relatively speaking, to reduce the portion of your travel time than to cut, for example, bytestid, travel, or drive, when you don’t have a place to sit.
“ It was a purely political judgement, and went back to trafikexperternas recommendations. In other countries, such as Norway and the Netherlands, as in Sweden, different values for the different modes of transport.
“ Before that, we had no-one sufficiently large and strong tidvärdesstudie as a basis.
“ a Lot of very large projects are non-viable, but that does not mean that all of the spårprojekt is non-viable. If you look at cost-effective spårinvesteringsprojekt to look at the smaller smart-trimming actions.
“ the city tunnel in malmö was a special one. The forecast didn’t effective, how the city tunnel could be used. When it was finished, it was used in a more intelligent way than the one it was designed for.
– on the other hand, it depends on what kind of forecast it is all about. Åtgärdsprognoser is usually a lot more accurate. With the referensprognoser is not the desire to get the most likely outcome, but the outcome under the current adopted policy. It is done by the assumptions of the future GDP, fuel prices, car ownership and public transport availability and prices. What has happened several times is that the government have said that we would like to know what will happen if we don’t do anything. However, for at least a couple of times, it has also been the case that the government has raised the fuel tax. And then, it is clear that the outcome may not be consistent with the forecast.
“ Fortunately, we’ve done the research on this, and that’s why we know now why it was wrong. The tågtrafikens is primarily about one thing: that the choice of the commuter and regional train services has increased much more than anticipated when the forecast was made. This was, in turn, is likely to a high degree, that the government began to subsidize the kollektivtrafikoperatörernas tågköp at the beginning of the year 2000, and that the regional trains would be competing with commercial traffic.
“ It is correct that about 20 years ago, the road traffic increases. This is due to the fuel price has increased more rapidly than you assumed. That is, we have learnt a number of lessons, and now, we are adopting a faster bränsleprisökningar than that of the projections 20, 30 years ago. However, it is questionable as to whether they are old-the projections also resulted in a built-out road, more than you would otherwise have to be done.
this time it was Jonas Eliasson, who is himself asking the question. He shows a picture on the wall in the meeting room of the transport department, where the interview is taking place. An image of 500 columns, where each bar represents a different infrastructure. More specifically, it is about the so-called “ nettonuvärdekvoter to stand as a candidate in the national development plan.
Of the more than 150 projects at the top, would be just five to go five to get in, and if we put the value of the money of all the means of transportation is in the forecast, “ says the man, who is Sweden’s foremost expert in the field.
“ If we allow assertive, it is because of that, even if there are a lot of uncertainties, so it is possible to distinguish between small and large uncertainty. We know how big the error in a forecast, and why, and the what is a spreadsheet and what not to do. No one can say for sure how big the cars are that by 2030, it is possible to be quite certain in a range, and you can be pretty sure of the effect of the different measures.
for more information, see the Trains to be underestimated as the future of travel is expected.
for more information, see the Experts saw as estimates of the major train projects.
