It’s a new coronavirus spreading. It might seem a cynical approach to discuss the economic impact of the death. None-the-less, we should do it. The virus is able to provide a far-reaching impact on the global economy.
the Epidemics is not a new thing. Only in recent years, we have seen sars, ebola and swine flu. The common view among economists is that, epidemics, strikes, production, and trade for a couple of quarters of the year, but recovery is usually rapid when the circulation is stopped and the machine is in operation. Sometimes, the recovery is even stronger than in the fall, when the loss of the land to be taken up again. Produktionskurvan will be able to see out of that one, where the right hand is upward, the flange can reach over to the left, downward.
and , as in the sars for 17 years. We can, however, be said that the economic impact will be more severe. There is no V, it is rather a U-shape, and the risk is that the recovery will be that much more difficult, and more long-winded than that.
One of the reasons is that the Chinese economy is now much larger, and more integrated into the global economy. This causes a serious financial loss, at the same time, both the disease and the economic problems quickly spread to other countries. A second reason is that the new coronavirus has, at a sensitive time, as the globalisation is already in retreat, and the economies are vulnerable.
to summarize, all of these direct and indirect impacts to the global economy as a whole will grow more slowly this year than forecasters previously expected, with knock-on effects for unemployment and income.
with regard to the former, direct effect, we see that the contagion is now slowing down in China. The factories that have been closed are beginning to open up, but it will take time to get to the production because of the millions of workers because of a quarantine, and stopped the shipments are still in the midst of the hembyarna, far, far away from their places of work.
“ It shows a sharp decline. The transport sector has, in the past month, had 80 per cent less busy than usual. 200 million fewer people have been coming back to cities after the chinese new year. Going to the cinema has fallen by more than 99 per cent. The production of electricity is reduced. Its use has been cut in half. Many companies are reporting that they are running at a loss, and that they are able to hold up to a maximum of a couple of months before they need to be put down. The investment program has been störtdykt.
Fastighetsmarknadens the turnover is, only one-third of the normal rate. The so-called “ sentimentsindikatorer to show confidence in the future has fallen to its lowest level ever. And this is true for all of China, not only in the hard-hit Hubeiprovinsen.
in the Chinese economy will shrink, maybe by a couple of percentage points, maybe even more so. This is to be compared with a growth rate of 5 to 6 per cent, in the normal case.
this is Because China accounts for one-fifth of the world economy means that the world’s growth in the first quarter, dampened by about 1.5 percentage points; an effect much greater than the sars epidemic.
And then, we have barely even begun to see the effects in other countries. The epidemic has so far reached more than 50 countries and have been the stronghold of the republic of Korea, Italy, Japan, and Iran. Of these, four account for almost 10 per cent of the global economy. The chinese are already one-third of the world’s gdp is directly affected. Quarantine laws, curtailing our production and transport in these countries will have a direct impact on global gdp in the second quarter of the year.
. The world’s companies are tied into a network of sub-contractors and production units in several countries. China is the world’s largest exporter of manufactured goods and semi-finished products. If this system is damaged, the affected output negatively, while in the countries where the novel coronavirus has not been reached. Company in Sweden may be a lack of investment, not to spread of the virus in the united states, but it has been in the countries where the subcontractors are, and in which the output is stopped by the quarantine laws.
Psychology is also another factor that will have a negative impact. The media is reporting, and we will be saved. We are setting up travel, meetings, work from home, buy less – which may be laudable, but the lower the output. All of this also affects the financial markets. The stock markets are intimidated by a fall in output, and the future of the vinstfall – taking investors the opportunity to take home the prize after a previous rise. So, the falling of the stock markets and the pessimism will take a turn for the. t, with the knock-on effects for unemployment and income. Really, really creepy it might be if the infection takes hold in the united states and Germany, in particular the major economies, with trade and, in Africa, with its large and growing population, and the ability to stop the spread of infection.
But the virus – and the virusbekämpningen can provide even more effects. The last quarter of a century has been characterized by globalization. World trade has been increasing, as well as cross-border investment. Many of the goods produced in the global ”production” of components from various manufacturers in different countries. It has increased productivity and has contributed to the reduction of poverty in the world, has fallen significantly.
over The last few years, this process has been. Brexit will create new barriers to trade. Trade wars between China and the united states have raised the tariffs on many goods. The rivalry between the major powers over who will control the future of AI’s, and the 5G is liable to provoke a fragmentation of the world economy, in which european companies can be caught in the middle.
as a Result, many companies are reviewing their production in order to make it less vulnerable to attack. They are relocating the production of what is perceived to be safer areas. World trade is growing, now there is only half as fast as before the financial crisis. A widespread epidemic and the accompanying quarantines, and halted the transport of this sensitive location, a further slowing down of trade and investment. Companies speeds up the process and production chains in a turn. The globalization is starting to back away.
The development of learn to give the slower rate of productivity growth. After a few years, the cumulative cost may be significant: for the world as a whole will be the income is lower, poverty is becoming entrenched the longer. The economic viruseffekterna can be much more long-term and more unpleasant than most people anticipate.
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